Running

Apparently, in 2024 out of the 70,000 inhabitants of my hometown, only 56 people (8 in 10,000) started in the Marathon Rotterdam. Nationwide that’s 17,000 marathon runners out of 18,000,000 people (9 in 10,000). While running is on the rise since COVID19, the marathon is still a niche distance.

Despite an injury I developed after my half marathon race two weeks ago, I’m going to run a marathon next Sunday. I already know what went wrong (lack of specific strength), and how to prevent it next time—I need to do the supplementary exercises I used to do, like hops and jumps, and running up a stair, several steps at a time, besides the usual exercises like crunches, planks, lunges and push-ups.

So, in order to not stress my body too much, I lowered my expectations for the upcoming marathon race, by starting at a 4:30 hours pace (6:20 min/km, 10:11 min/mi), and perhaps speeding up after the 35 km mark. It’s a sound strategy, provided the injury is cured (enough). I replaced running by bicycling a week ago.

I suppose I’m (re)learning by making mistakes. I really can’t fault myself, because the trainer I’m paying my track & field club for has never materialized. There’s someone, but he’s only interested in faster runners at shorter distances (3 to 10 km). Maybe I should hire a coach, though that’s rather costly, even an online coach or an app like Runna. Doing it all yourself is unnecessarily hard.

🏃‍♂️👈42.2 km👉🏃‍♂️‍➡️

Yesterday I noticed pain in my achilles tendon, so I decided to replace some running by cycling. I recorded using a triathlon app on my watch. Two things went wrong. I accidentally wiped the activity, but, worse, I underestimated the bike ride and the heat. It was too long and too fast. 🏃‍♂️🚴‍♂️

I’m looking for inspiration by following marathon runners on Strava. Got discouraged by a member of my T&F club, who claimed she could run a marathon on 27 km per week as a base, because she wasn’t able to put in the time. Alas, she’s not the only member who lost respect for the marathon.
🏃

Last Saturday I did a 30 km training run as a (300 m run, 100 m walk) run-walk-run in 3h38m, about 50% slower than my fastest ever 30 km race in 2016. Corrected for heart rate it’s only 25% slower, and for weight 10% slower. That difference could be largely explained by the walking. 🏃‍♂️

I find it interesting to predict one’s time in an important running race based on a test run, as to know what a good pace is to keep up during that race. I always used a self-conceived rule, which is quite different from the generally accepted rule according to research engineer Peter Riegel, although it took some math to figure that out (see below).

Self-conceived rule

I have experienced for myself early on in my running career that my pace increases by a factor of 1.07 when doubling the running distance, under ideal circumstances. For example, a 10 km race tended to be 7 percent slower than a 5 km race. I generalized this idea into a formula.

1: p2 ÷ p1 = 1.07 ⁿ

2: d2 ÷ d1 = 2 ⁿ

1 & 2 ⇒ n = ²log(d2 ÷ d1)

p2 ÷ p1 = 1.07 ^{²log(d2 ÷ d1)}

p2 = p1 × 1.07 ^{²log(d2 ÷ d1)}

p1 = t1 ÷ d1; p2 = t2 ÷ d2

⇒ t2 ÷ d2 = (t1 ÷ d1) × 1.07 ^{²log(d2 ÷ d1)}

t2 = t1 × (d2 ÷ d1) x 1.07 ^{²log(d2 ÷ d1)}

Factors for 1.07 ^{²log(d2 ÷ d1)}

The table below shows some favorite distances from road races. In the rows are the distances from which the pace is known and in the columns the distances from which the corresponding factors can be read as numbers in the table. Multiplying a known pace for a particular distance with this factor gives the corresponding unknown pace for another distance. For example, for a 15 km race (third row in the table) multiply this race’s pace by a factor of 1.1062 to calculate the ideal pace for a marathon (eighth column in the table). A sub-3 hour marathon would require a sub-36 minutes 10 km, according to this table.

	5 km	10 km	15 km	10 mi	20 km	½ mar	30 km	mar
5 km	1.0000	1.0700	1.1132	1.1208	1.1449	1.1509	1.1911	1.2314
10 km	0.9346	1.0000	1.0404	1.0475	1.0700	1.0756	1.1132	1.1509
15 km	0.8983	0.9612	1.0000	1.0069	1.0285	1.0339	1.0700	1.1062
10 mi	0.8922	0.9546	0.9932	1.0000	1.0215	1.0268	1.0627	1.0987
20 km	0.8734	0.9346	0.9723	0.9790	1.0000	1.0052	1.0404	1.0756
½ mar	0.8689	0.9297	0.9673	0.9739	0.9948	1.0000	1.0350	1.0700
30 km	0.8395	0.8983	0.9346	0.9351	0.9612	0.9662	1.0000	1.0339
mar	0.8121	0.8689	0.9040	0.9102	0.9298	0.9346	0.9673	1.0000

Rule according to Riegel

According to Peter Riegel the increase in pace for a longer distance is radically different:

t2 = t1 × (d2 ÷ d1) ^1.06

For times between about 3 and 230 minutes.

t2 = t1 × d2 ^1.06 ÷ d1 ^1.06

t2 ÷ d2 = t1 × (d2 ^1.06 ÷ d2) ÷ d1 ^1.06

t2 ÷ d2 = t1 × d2 ^{1.06 - 1} ÷ d1 ^1.06

t2 ÷ d2 = t1 × d2 ^0.06 ÷ (d1 × (d1 ^1.06 ÷ d1))

t2 ÷ d2 = t1 × d2 ^0.06 ÷ (d1 × (d1 ^{1.06 - 1}))

t2 ÷ d2 = (d2 ^0.06 ÷ d1 ^0.06) × (t1 ÷ d1)

t2 ÷ d2 = (d2 ÷ d1) ^0.06 × (t1 ÷ d1)

p1 = t1 ÷ d1; p2 = t2 ÷ d2

⇒ p2 = (d2 ÷ d1) ^0.06 × p1

If the distance doubles, the pace increases by a factor of 2 ^0.06, or 1.0425. That would mean that as the distance increases, the pace increases drastically less than with the aforementioned calculation method of my own.

A similar table is shown below, containing factors to be multiplied with known paces to calculate unknown paces, depending on the distances.

Factors for the Riegel calculation

The table below shows some favorite distances from road races. In the rows are the distances from which the pace is known and in the columns the distances from which the corresponding factors can be read as numbers in the table. Multiplying a known pace for a particular distance with this factor gives the corresponding unknown pace for another distance. For example, for a 15 km race (third row in the table) you can multiply the pace by a factor of 1.0640 to calculate the ideal pace on a marathon (eighth column in the table). For a sub-3 hour marathon, a time of sub-39 minutes on the 10 km is fast enough, according to this table.

	5 km	10 km	15 km	10 mi	20 km	½ mar	30 km	mar
5 km	1.0000	1.0425	1.0681	1.0726	1.0867	1.0902	1.1135	1.1365
10 km	0.9593	1.0000	1.0246	1.0289	1.0425	1.0458	1.0681	1.0902
15 km	0.9362	0.9760	1.0000	1.0042	1.0174	1.0207	1.0425	1.0640
10 mi	0.9323	0.9719	0.9958	1.0000	1.0131	1.0164	1.0381	1.0596
20 km	0.9202	0.9593	0.9829	0.9870	1.0000	1.0032	1.0246	1.0458
½ mar	0.9172	0.9562	0.9797	0.9839	0.9968	1.0000	1.0213	1.0425
30 km	0.8981	0.9362	0.9593	0.9633	0.9760	0.9791	1.0000	1.0207
mar	0.8799	0.9172	0.9398	0.9438	0.9562	0.9593	0.9797	1.0000

What to use?

It seems rather obvious to me that a generally accepted rule makes more sense than something you came up with yourself based on your own race results. Other than that, there are strict limits to when the rule according to Riegel applies. For slow runners (e.g. marathon in 4½ hours) or extremely short distances (e.g. 400 m) the rule does not apply, or, at least, the prediction value will be rather low.

An acquaintance of mine ran a time of 1h01m36s in a “15 km” race (14.87 km according to his GPS). According to my calculation, that would be enough for 3h15m39s on a marathon with certified course (1% longer than 42.195 km). According to Riegel, it would be enough for 3h08m03s on the same certified marathon course. In both cases, the result of the “15 km” race was too slow for an “official marathon” (i.e. with certified course) under 3 hours. A sub-3 hour marathon would have required a time of 56m40s or 58m57s for the “15 km” race (my rule, Riegels rule respectively). This acquaintance has to get faster somehow, either by training and/or good fueling during the race. Ideal circumstances would help too.

Anyway, I think I can put my home-grown calculation method to rest and start using the much better tested method according to Peter Riegel.

In preparation for a half marathon on King’s Day (April 27) I ran and walked 24 km. I’m still suffering through an ankle injury, so I’ll have to be cautious. It was a beautiful day, partially run alongside a canal between two rivers. It was tough, because I did 1.5 times my usual training 🏃

Someone dug a trench across a footpath, and I stepped right into it, hurting my ankle badly. Who does such a thing, making a trap for pedestrians? The ankle is swollen and hurts, but not enough to go to a doctor. I suppose R.I.C.E. will reduce the swelling, as in Rest, Ice, Compression, Elevation.

If everything goes as planned, I will have run around 3300 km (2050 mi) in 2023 when the New Year rolls around. With a little over 5 weeks to go, I’ve already passed 2930 km of running this year, an average of 63 km (39 mi) weekly, 272 km (169 mi) monthly, despite injuries and other mishaps. 🏃‍♂️

After doing some research to find out which marathons can be reached in time by public transport, and finding out I already knew those, I’m going for a recovery run, to clear my mind from the realization that a car is still needed for early hours on Sundays, (or late hours in Summer). I’m carless.

I need to remind myself that me running competitively is just a mind trick to keep fit. I’m under no illusion that I’m able to win a race, not even in my age class. Keeping fit is already struggle enough. No need for being a target for those after “eternal” fame (i.e. until the next race).

I already felt awful when I woke up this morning. After a 24 km run I feel exhausted. It was supposed to be a 32 km long run. I’ll get to bed early tonight, sooo tired 😫

Yesterday I did another long run, 26 km with 20 km at marathon tempo. This doesn’t sound all too impressive, until you consider what came before (32 km a week before, 23 km 4 days before). See my training session on Strava. It felt like a race.

Yesterday I ran 32 km in 3h46m (see my Strava) as a part of my fall marathon preparation. I was quite exhausted at the end, so I need to do it again to be sure. The marathon is end of October.

I ran my first 3+ hours run in my Fall marathon schedule as a run-walk-run. My easy pace for a 4 hour marathon is between 6 and 8 min/km, the slower, the better (since it hurts less and has a similar effect on one’s endurance). The average was around 7 min/km, (11 min/mi).

Yesterday I ran a 10 km “race” in the heat of the day (30℃, 86℉), which is quite hot for traditional Dutch summers (though becoming norm with climate change). I wanted to run a half marathon, and was prepared with a cooling vest, but, apparently, this is a novelty, and I a fool to expect a race 🏃‍♂️

I now have a temporary free premium account with Strava, and am even less impressed than with Garmin Connect. Unless you like to flaunt with made up statistics to get some clout within the runner community, I don’t see any point in paying for a premium account.

24 marathons across 24 European countries in 2 months. This guy is just crazy, but in a nice way. He almost died during his first marathon from exposure, separated from his team (words were spoken, improvements discussed). See this YT video.

Today’s long run was (from the start) a bit of a bad run (see my result on Strava). It wasn’t so much the temperature, but the fact I wasn’t recovered (enough) from last Sunday’s intensive long run of 32 km. I had to walk the last 6 km. Better luck next time, in three weeks.🏃‍♂️

I looked into doing multiple marathons within a year. The best advice I found was:

• plan the marathon races far in advance, so you know what you’re up to
• concentrate on post-marathon recovery, especially the first week after a marathon (mostly non-running related activities: walk, cycle, swim)

🏃‍♂️